Petra Kvitova is the new ladies’ singles champion at Wimbledon, the Czech outplaying Maria Sharapova on Day 12 to claim her maiden Grand Slam title. Will it be Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic joining Kvitova as a 2011 Wimbledon singles champion? Read on for my thoughts and prediction for today’s blockbuster final.

Day 12 Recap

When Maria Sharapova broke Petra Kvitova’s serve in the opening game of the ladies’ singles final on Day 12, it seemed as though the inevitable nerves associated with playing in her first Grand Slam final were affecting Kvitova. But the eighth seed broke back immediately, and from there went to seize control of the match.

Hitting her groundstrokes hard, flat and deep, and working her powerful first and second serves to great effect, Kvitova took advantage of back-to-back double faults by Sharapova to take a 4-2 lead in the first set. From there, the lefty maintained her advantage and closed out the first set, 6-3, by holding to love. Kvitova lost the second set in her quarter-final against Pironkova and in her semi-final against Azarenka, and there was hope among Sharapova supporters that the Czech’s game might again go off the boil.

But Kvitova was in the zone on Day 12, with her ability to hit jamming deep returns at Sharapova’s feet forcing the Russian to go for more on her serve and groundstrokes, which unsurprisingly drew more unforced errors from the Sharapova racquet. At times when Sharapova looked to be getting on top in a rally, Kvitova was able to produce a winner from an off-balance, out-of-court position and, as Sharapova admitted afterwards, there was nothing she could do to combat the onslaught.

Kvitova rode the momentum generated by her first set conquest at the beginning of the second set, breaking Sharapova and overcoming a brace of double faults to establish a 2-0 lead. The Russian was not done with yet, though, with Sharapova’s competitiveness and tenacity coming to the fore, and she broke back to level at 2-all. Once again, Sharapova’s serving woes affected her charge, as she was broken and forced to break back to tie the score at 3 games apiece. Another break to Kvitova proved decisive, as she held serve to move ahead, 5-3. Finally, Sharapova managed to hold serve in order to force Kvitova to serve for the championship. But, as was the case in the first set, Kvitova showed no signs of nerves, holding to love for a 6-3 6-4 win and the biggest victory of her career.

For Kvitova, the breakthrough victory portends many more big wins. To my mind, the Czech player has the ability to dominate Wimbledon over the next few years, and be a huge threat at the other Grand Slams as well. For Sharapova, it was an agonising loss. The 3-time Grand Slam champion didn’t play her best tennis in the final, and her lack of a plan B when her strategy wasn’t working was graphically exposed. But there’s no doubt Sharapova is back near the apex of women’s tennis after an inconsistent couple of years, and the Russian will be a major threat heading into the US Open in late August.

Match of the Day – Day 13 

Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic

Today’s superstar match-up sees the best 2 players of the year pitted against one another. As one would expect, the match appears evenly poised, with strong arguments for and against each player able to be made. 10-time Grand Slam champion Nadal is riding a 20 match winning streak at the All England Club, while Djokovic has only lost one match all year.

Nadal leads Djokovic 16-11 in career meetings, but the Serb has won the last 4 meetings between the pair. Nadal has never lost to Djokovic in a Grand Slam, but the second seed has triumphed over the Spaniard in some big finals this year, including on Nadal’s favoured clay surface in Madrid and Rome.

Very little separates these players and the match may well come down to a couple of key points. The fact Djokovic has never won Wimbledon will count against him, as the tournament means more than any other to the Serb. Djokovic was unusually shaky towards the end of the third set in his match against Tsonga, and celebrated wildly after the win, signalling that this tournament is hugely important to him. Djokovic will need to keep his emotions in check if he is to triumph over the dual Wimbledon champion. Nadal, on the other hand, has already experienced the ecstasy of success at the All England Club, and can relax and concentrate on producing his best tennis.

To my mind, the battle of the second serves will be the most crucial within the match. Djokovic blunted Tsonga’s big serve in the semi-finals, and was able to get on top of Nadal’s second serve in his wins against the top seed earlier this year. The Serb needs to do that again to have a chance of winning today’s match. If Djokovic can be aggressive on the Nadal serve, replicate his incredible court movement from earlier in the tournament and stay patient, waiting for his opportunities, then the second seed will give himself a good shot at claiming the title.

But Nadal showed against Murray how easily he is able to turn defence into attack during a point, and how easily he can change the face of a match by getting on a roll. With Nadal receiving pain-killing injections for his troublesome left foot, his health and fitness should not be a concern in today’s match. Since the start of the tournament, the courts have dried out significantly, making them slower, and that will work in Nadal’s favour as he will have more time to chase down Djokovic’s shots and extend the points.

With Nadal having improved his serve in the last year, as well as becoming one of the best volleyers on the ATP Tour, I think the rock-solid Spaniard has to enter the final as a slight favourite. If he plays his absolute best tennis, Djokovic is good enough to win, but anything less than that will more than likely signal defeat for the Serb. Nadal in 5.

That’s it for today. Enjoy the tennis and I’ll be back to wrap up the men’s final tomorrow.